Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for (week of Mon 1/14-Sun 1/20)


The models are projecting a very strong storm building off Japan on Monday (1/14) pushing east towards, but not reaching, the dateline on Tuesday with winds forecast building to 70-75 kts (hurricane force) with seas pushing near 60 ft aimed reasonably well down the 310-320 degree great circle paths to the Hawaiian Islands. The storm is to stall and drift north positioned just west of the dateline Wednesday (1/16) with winds fading from 45 kts and seas dropping from 56 ft, effectively gone by Thursday. This is to be the strongest storm the North Pacific has seen in 3 years if all develops as modeled. The result is to be large and very long period swell radiated east and southeast from the core of the storm, with swell projected to reach Maui late Thursday afternoon (1/17) with period 25 secs peaking late Friday (1/18) with additional energy moving in Saturday but period fading some, resulting in size slowly dropping off.

The issue is local winds in the forecast area during the time the swell is hitting are to be unfavorable, coming from the north and at pretty solid speeds. The team is monitoring this system and the local wind projection for any signs of improvement.

Beyond no weather systems capable of generating swell that meet contest criteria are forecast. But the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is to remain in the Active Phase (which supports storm development) and the jetstream is to remain in a favorable configuration, with the split point forecast to move to a point east of Hawaii. This is the first time this year the split point is to move that far east, opening up the window for storm development more.

Forecast Images

Surface Pressure and Wind
Notice a strong storm developing off Japan late Monday (1/14) with winds 65-70 kts aimed well to the east and southeast effectively pushing well down the great circle paths to Maui. We have not seen a storm with winds this strong since the 2010-211 season.

Significant Wave Height
Notice the storm generating seas pushing 60 ft at it's core near 41N 170E. This should result in very long period swell radiating east and southeast filling the North Pacific Basin with surf. But at this time this remains just a forecast. No winds associated with this storm are yet blowing on the oceans surface as of the tine of this update.


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