Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for (week of Mon 1/21-Sun 1/27)

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A series of small gales are forecast tracking from the dateline east producing seas into the low 40 ft range this week. The first of these formed on Sunday (1/20) with another scheduled for Tuesday and yet a third on Wed-Thurs (1/24). But the issue with all three is they are to track either flat west-to-east or even take a northeast trajectory. The preferred track is southeast towards the Hawaiian Islands, which in turn pushes the resulting swell energy towards the Islands. Strength and size wise they all are in the range of acceptability, but the heading of each is not, with most swell energy instead projected to move east towards the US mainland with only a glancing blow expected for Maui.

The jet stream continues to push solidly off Japan tracking flat east over the international dateline, then splitting just north of Hawaii. Wind speeds in the jet are near 170 kts (which is respectable) and is forecast to build to near 190 kts (even better) later in the week which again is supportive of gale development. If the jet would just carve out a bit of a trough east of the dateline, that would nudge the storm track closer to the Islands.

Over the long haul the jet is to hold in a favorable configuration to support storm development, and with winds speeds creeping up, that will only increase to amount of fuel available for storm development. And the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is to remain in the Active Phase (which supports storm development) for the next 2 weeks, which also should support storm formation. So the overall outlook is positive.

Forecast Images

Jetstream Wind Speed and Direction
Notice wind to 170 kts pushing off Japan and flowing flat east to the international dateline then ridging hard north above Hawaii. The jetstream controls the storm track, and so all storms forecast over the next week are projected to take that same west to east track turning northeast as they approach the Islands.



Significant Wave Height
Notice a small gale forecast to develop on the dateline on Tuesday (1/22) with seas to 41 ft. This would be a good candidate storm if it's heading was to fall southeast instead of moving east-northeast.


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