Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for (week of Mon 1/7-Sun 1/13)

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No gales or storms are currently forecast that would produce surf meeting minimal contest criteria for the next 7 days.

But, there is a very small but reasonably strong storm forecast for the northern dateline region on Fri (1/11) with winds projected to 55 kts resulting in seas near the 44 ft range for a brief instant in time. The issue with this system, assuming it even forms, is that it is to be tracking northeast away from our target (Maui) rather than diving towards it. And the seas generated by the projected fetch are to be all aimed due east if not northeast, resulting in only a glancing blow of swell for the Islands.

The good news is that in the upper levels of the atmosphere the jetstream is looking most energetic with a consolidated and strong wind flow pushing off Japan reaching the dateline, then splitting there. Winds by Friday (1/11) are to be pushing 210 kts and digging out a bit of a trough on the dateline, which is likely what is fueling the projected storm. This is all a good sign and indicates that the fundamentals remain in-place. With a projected change in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving from the Inactive Phase to the Active Phase about 10 days out, the expectation is that a series of stronger and better positioned storms will result. This is not guaranteed, but historically swell production ramps up during the Active Phase of the MJO. And the Active Phase tends to last 3-4 week. So if there were to be a contestable swell, we'd be expecting it sometime from mid-January through early February.

Forecast Images

250 mb Jetstream Flow

Notice a consolidated jetstream flow forecast continuing from Japan to the dateline with winds reaching 210 kts by Fri (1/11). And a weak trough is to be forming just south of the Aleutians. This is not an optimal configuration, but it is a step in the right direction. A split jetstream flow continues to plague the East Pacific. But the split point is to be steadily moving east as the jetstream becomes more energetic.



Significant Wave Height
Notice a small storm developing near the dateline on Fri (1/11) with seas to 44 ft. But it is to be tracking northeast rather than southeast. Regardless, if this were to occur some small longer period swell would result, but not enough to reach the minimal criteria for a contest


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