Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for (week of Mon 12/31-Sun 1/5)

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After much excitement last week regarding a modeled storm north of the Islands, the final analysis revealed the storm did not materialize nearly as strong as the previously overhyped models projected. Regardless, it was a good dry run for preparing for an eventual contest event.

Currently there are no contest worthy storms or gale modeled for the coming 7 days. A small system is forecast tracking off the Kuril Islands towards the dateline Tues-Wed (1/2) with seas in the 30 ft range, but not nearly large enough to meet the contest grade. Beyond a rather fragmented gale pattern is forecast with sporadic sea production in the lower 20 ft range, but again not enough to make the grade.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere the split jetstream pattern that had been causing us much consternation has abated, and a solid looking singular flow is forecast tracking flat off Japan and across the dateline with winds in the 170 kt range, capable of supporting some respectable degree of gale formation. So the fundamentals remain in-place. We're just waiting for the right variables to all come into play to create a solid significant class storm.

Forecast Images

250 mb Jetstream Flow
Notice a consolidatedion jetstream oflow forecast continuing from Japan to the dateline with winds 170 kts by Fri (1/4). Though not trough is dug out, the basic pattern is supoertive of gale formation in the West Pacific.



Significant Wave Height
Notice a gale developing off the Northern Kuril Islands on Tues (1/2) tracking flat to the east with seas to 30 ft. If this were to occur some modest longer period swell would result, but not enough to reach the minimal criteria for a contest.


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