Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for week of Mon 12/10-Sun 12/16

npac_250_24hr.jpg

For the coming week no large wave producing weather systems are forecast in the contest swell window.

We're seeing some improvements in the jetstream flow aloft, which is what fuels storm development. Wind speeds are on the increase forecast to push 180 kts by Monday (12/10) tracking in a single flow off Japan reaching to the dateline with a bit of a trough developing there. But the problem begins there, on the dateline, where the flow is to split heavily with most energy rising up in the the northern of the two split flow tracking effectively along the Aleutians on into Alaska. Storms will follow this path, which means they will be landlocked and not get any traction on the oceans surface. This suggests swell development will be confined to the area north of Japan between there and the dateline.

Looking at the wave and weather models this pattern is evidenced for the coming 7 days. A broad gale is to develop off Northern Japan on Monday tracking east producing westerly winds in the 40 kt range resulting in seas building to 30 ft through early Tuesday. But as the gale approaches the dateline it is to start tracking northeast, with it's core moving into the Bering Sea late Tuesday and becoming landlocked, no longer producing seas that could generate swell relative to Maui. The net result, assuming all plays out as modeled, is for small scale swell to be produced. But it is to not be near the minimum size threshold for a contest.

Looking further out another smaller gale is forecast following a similar track on Sunday (12/16) also bound for the Bering Sea rather than taking a more southerly route east over the dateline.

Overall there is some improvement in the overall picture, but until the Active Phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) kicks in, which would add much more energy to the jetstream and help to repair the split, more of the same modest gale pattern is expected.

Forecast Images

250 mb Jetstream Flow

As of Monday (12/10) notice winds building to 180 kts consolidated and tracking east off Japan. But also notice the large split in the jet once it hits the international dateline.


Significant Wave Height
Notice a broad but diffuse gale forecast to develop off Japan on Monday (12/10). It is to track northeast following the jetstream, not intensifying any more and moving into the Bering Sea. Some swell will likely result for Hawaii, but nothing near meeting contest criteria.


North Pacific Significant Wave Height Animation


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