Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for week of Mon 12/24-Sun 12/30


As of the 18Z run of the models today (Sunday - 12/23), a series of small gales are forecast tracking generally flat west to east over the dateline. They are to be fueled by a rapidly improving jetstream flow aloft. The split pattern of weeks past is gone and a singular more energetic flow is to be in-place by Monday (12/24) and improving more by Thurs (12/27) with 220 kt west winds tracking flat over the dateline making steady but sure progress eastward into the weekend, offering good odds for gale development on the coveted dateline region. This is a much needed upgrade from model runs earlier this week.

Down at the surface the first in a series of gales developed Saturday PM (12/22) with seas 34 ft over a small area tracking southeast, fading slowly down to 28 ft Sunday PM. The resulting swell to be below contest criteria forecast and rather short lasting (7.6-8.4 ft @ 16-17 secs - 12-14 ft Hawaiian) from 310-320 degrees on Christmas Day (12/25). A second gale is forecast for Tues AM (12/25) with 34 ft seas tracking east-northeast, with seas reaching 42 ft Wed AM, then fading from 40 ft in the evening while tracking into the Gulf of Alaska. This system to provide only a glancing blow of energy at Hawaii. Yet a third is forecast for Fri (12/28) with barely 34 ft seas, but tracking better southeast towards the Hawaiian Islands, fading Saturday AM with seas dropping from 30 ft. Of the three, this one looks somewhat promising, mainly due to it's larger fetch area, though calculated pure swell heights to remain below contest criteria (15 ft Hawaiian) from 304-317 degrees.

The models have been very dynamic with considerable variance from one run to the next, so any particular outcome is uncertain. But if more aggressive development were to materialize, especially on the last of these three gales, this might become something of more interest. We certainly have some weather systems worth monitoring.

Forecast Images

250 mb Jetstream Flow
Notice the consolidation of the jetstream over the dateline with winds building to 220 kts and starting to dig out a broad but shallow trough there, offering decent support for gale development there.

Significant Wave Height
Notice a gale developing and the International Dateline falling southeast theoretically generating up to 34 ft seas. And that fetch is to be aimed well at the Hawaiian Islands. Still, sea heights are to not be enough to reach the minimum threshold for a contest.


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