Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for week of Mon 2/18-Sun 2/24


Over the next week no storms capable of generating contest grade surf is forecast.

The Inactive Phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has taken control and as is typical of this situation, high pressure builds over the Pacific driving the jetstream to the north and generally making the formation of swell producing storms in the Maui swell window less likely.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere at the jetstream level, a split jet is forecast with the split point initially very far to the west near 160E and winds speeds generally in the 160 kt range. But as the week unfolds, winds speeds are to build pushing near 200 kts by next weekend (2/24) and the split point is to push back to the east tracking over the dateline and near 165W. Overall this suggests a slowly improving pattern for the jet, though no troughs of interest are forecast capable of supporting storm development.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere virtually no swell producing storms are forecast until the weekend (Sat - 2/23) when a small gale is to develop just south of the Aleutians near the dateline and tracking flat east producing 50 kt west winds and seas to 41 ft, but not aimed decently towards the Hawaiian Islands. No other swell producing systems of interest are forecast directly behind.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which tends to determine long term storm production trends, though now in the Inactive Phase, is expected to stay that way for the next 2 weeks. The Inactive Phase is generally not favorable for storm development. But the MJO models are now suggesting the Active Phase is to be building right behind, and is already starting to take shape in the Indian Ocean, and theoretically could start making inroads into the far West Pacific about 2 weeks out. If this were to occur, odds for storm production would ramp up again.

Forecast Images

Jet Stream Forecast
48 hours out notice the jetstream well split with the split point well to the west near 160E. Two distinct branches proceed east from there. High pressure typically develops between the split flows with gale production limited to the small area north of the northern branch and south of the Aleutian Islands. So there isn't too much room for development indicated. Longer term winds speeds are to increase and the split point is to push east some and the northern branch retreat more to the south, offering reason for some optimism

Significant Wave Height
By Saturday (2/23) notice a small storm developing just west of the dateline and south of the Aleutians tracking east. Any swell it generates is to be propagating east rather than southeast at Maui, likely not resulting in contestable swell. But this is not unusual for the Inactive Phase of the MJO. The good news is the models suggest this should be a fairly short run for the Inactive Phase.


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