Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for week of Mon 2/4-Sun 2/10

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Over the next week the storm track is to move north some, mainly attributable to weakness in the jetstream.

Early this week in the upper levels of the atmosphere a very weak wind pattern is forecast for the jetstream, followed by a rebuilding of winds to near 200 kts, but limited in coverage and isolated to a small area just off Japan. A trough is to build there early week lifting rapidly northeast surviving till about Thursday (2/7) and relocated to the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians. This to be supportive of gale formation, but likely well north of the Hawaiian Islands and tracking more away from the Islands rather than falling towards them (the required trajectory). Late in the forecast period a strong flow is to start building over and off Japan tracking flat west with winds 150 kts, possibly providing more support for gale development aimed better at Maui.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere a storm is to start brewing in the trough forecast in the jetstream off Northern Japan on Tuesday (3/5) with winds near 55 kts and seas building to 38 ft, but then quickly tracking northeast with the core of the low relocated to a point just south of the Aleutians Wed (2/7) producing west winds to 50 kts and seas in the 44 ft range, then easing east and fading out in the extreme Western Gulf of Alaska by early Fri (2/8). Swell to result, but mostly aimed a targets well east of the contest site. No other system of interest are charted.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which tends to determine long term storm production trends, remains in the Active Phase for now, supportive of storm production. But the models suggest it is starting to trend towards the Inactive Phase and is expected to build more in that direction over the next 2 weeks. But for the next week it appears it will continue to support storm production in the Western Pacific.

Forecast Images

Jet Stream Forecast

66 hours out notice a trough (dip/twist in the jet) developing just west of the dateline fed by 150 kt winds pushing off Japan. This to be supportive of gale development in the lower levels of the atmosphere off Japan. Also notice the jetstream splitting as it reaches the dateline with much less wind energy east of the dateline. This is to not be supportive of gale development.



Significant Wave Height
At the same time notice a small storm developing south of the Aleutian Islands and just west of the dateline with seas in the 44 ft range over a small area aimed east. This to result in swell, but most of it is to be propagating east rather than southeast at Maui and a long ways away, likely not resulting in contestable swell.


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