Red Bull Jaws

Weather Forecast for week of Mon 3/11-Fri 3/15


Over the next week no storms capable of generating contest grade surf is forecast.

The MJO is supposedly moving into the Active Phase, which theoretically should enhance storm development. But if anything the exact opposite is occurring, with the Active Phase of the MJO appearing weak and is likely being overridden by the approach of Spring. The result is high pressure has set up over the dateline and is having a dominant effect over the bulk of the North Pacific, driving the storm track north and reducing odds of gale formation.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere at the jetstream level, wind energy is weak only reaching 130 kt in one small pocket just off Japan, and then splits with the northern branch tracking hard north up into the Bering Sea turning east there and not returning to fall south over the Pacific until just off the Canadian Coast. It is providing virtually no support for gale development. No real change is forecast for the next week with the jet remaining split just off Japan and tracking up into the Bering Sea. Occasionally some energy is to fall south forming a bit of a trough north of Hawaii, but this trough is to be more of the cut-off variety, where most energy continues tracking east up through the Bering Sea with only a fraction of the jet energy falling into the trough over the Pacific. This only supports the formation of very weak low pressure at the surface, and does not support solid swell producing gale activity.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere virtually no solid swell producing weather systems are forecast for the week. Weak low pressure is to occasionally flare up north of Hawaii generating maybe 20 ft seas, but nothing more. This would not result in anything close to contest grade swell. This appears to be consistent with a normal Spring weather pattern.

Forecast Images

Jet Stream Forecast
30 hours out (on Mon 3/11) notice the jetstream looking rather weak with winds barely 130 kt in one pocket off Japan, then splitting with most energy tracking hard north into the Bering Sea if not beyond, and only returning to the Pacific just off the coast of Canada. This pattern is not favorable for gale development.

Significant Wave Height

On Wednesday (3/13) notice no seas of interest occurring. This same pattern is forecast for the remainder of the week also.


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